2018 Regular Season Sim 2 Complete - Next Sim Sunday 9/4

[umd]

Just to be clear, im not knocking anyone about Zhang. I do t usually comment on other peoples moves because i dont want it taken the wrong way. I just thought it was a surprise UMD signed the guy. I figured Zhang going to a lower tier team.

Surprised myself.

[BDub]

Just to be clear, im not knocking anyone about Zhang. I do t usually comment on other peoples moves because i dont want it taken the wrong way. I just thought it was a surprise UMD signed the guy. I figured Zhang going to a lower tier team.

[umd]

Zhang is very similar to Dave Honea who was one of my favorite pitchers. He was undervalued in Vegas I think.

Honea debuted at 23 late in the season and had 12 starts.

AAA: 8-3 2.53 ERA 114 IP 9.2 K/9 0.9 BB/9 0.5 BB/9 3.7 WAR
BLB: 3-4 4.17 ERA 77.2 IP 6.3 K/9 3.4 BB/9 0.5 HR/9 1.4 WAR

At 24, Honea became our #3 starter and posted this line in 2012.

19-3 2.53 ERA 196.0 IP 6.7 K/9 1.9 BB/9 0.6 HR/9 4.0 WAR

[umd]

I know you're playing Devil's advocate funclown but he checks a lot of boxes you look for when drafting a pitcher in the top of our BLB drafts. That's how I saw it. Does he look like he could be a top 5 draft talent? I thought so. The thought process was similar to how I draft. The fact he was developed according to OSA is equivalent to the "potential" aspect of a college or HS amateur.

Right now he ticks all the boxes I prefer when drafting.

OSA 5-6-7 My Scout 5-6-7
Pitches: FB 6 CB 6 SL 5 CU 5 (6-my scout) so he does have two potential plus pitches. He seems more dominant against righties according to both.

He is neutral and not a flyball pitcher. He has solid velocity at 23 at 92-94 and possibly most important to offering him a risky contract... he is durable. His intangibles (which I admittedly over rate) are:

WE: VH
LA: H
DfW: N

The stats in an extremely small sample size seem to line up with his ratings as far as AAA goes. There are very few AAA stars that come from drafts and dominate the BLB right away. Even the very best and furthest developed draftees spend at least 1-2 seasons in the minors if fast tracked. That's my plan here. He will debut at some point in Vegas. He will most likely be our #4 at some point this season or early next. Hopefully in 2019 (late most likely) he is our #2 behind Willie Fajardo if Fajardo is still a Scorpion. If that is his progression, I'd be more than happy. If he evolves into the consistent ace of a top draft choice or top pitcher on the list then I hit a home run. If he is just an average number 3 type. He's overpaid but only costs me money and not picks.

[Carlos]

Its partly why i was surprised by the signing. UMD doesnt usually throw money out there like that. Not his style. He likes building through trading and not making huge splashes. Not that there is anything wrong with that. Honestly, what does he have to lose by signing the guy? Worse case scenario is if he cant trade him, he keeps him.

For now, Zheng looks like the real deal and that helps DVS on the field and in the front office.

You got Tinajero, who I think is being ignored way too much from the class.

Not a shortstop though.

[funclown]

Devils advocate, He's a 5-6-6 pitcher with no plus pitch and is locked to a huge contract without proving a thing in the BLB.

Plus side, he's 23 and durable with room to grow via OSA. He probably ends up a solid 2 or an elite 3. An ace????

UMD has the budget space to take a risk to along with a surplus of draft picks the next few seasons. I never question UMDs moves again just playing devils advocate.

I will say there should been 5-6 teams(without calling them out) that should of gone balls the wall trying to get him. Maybe they did and UMD just out bid for him.

[PaulC]

I do think he's going to be good. And it will turn out to be a good pickup for umd.

But I'm still never taking that risk unless I have the budget and the roster to make it worth it. Too many ways it can backfire for a rebuilding team.

I couldn't agree more!

It's a calculated risk, but just not worth it at this point.

[Carlos]

Hadn't looked at Zhang since FA and he's gone up to 6-5-7 pot from 5-5-6 which was my scout's original thoughts on him.

All I can say is wow.

I do think he's going to be good. And it will turn out to be a good pickup for umd.

But I'm still never taking that risk unless I have the budget and the roster to make it worth it. Too many ways it can backfire for a rebuilding team.

[Delandis]

Hadn't looked at Zhang since FA and he's gone up to 6-5-7 pot from 5-5-6 which was my scout's original thoughts on him.

All I can say is wow.

[PaulC]

No risk, no reward.

Touché.

[umd]

My thoughts exactly. It's the same reason teams like the Didgers, Red Sox, and Yankees do it. Smaller teams can afford, what they can't afford is the potential mistake a bad signing like that might be.

No risk, no reward.

[PaulC]

Here's my advice to California.

Don't rebuild by trying to go for broke. It'll ruin you if you make the wrong move. A lot of the time, you still won't have everything you need because fan interest takes time, market takes a lot more time.

The former California GM struck gold on a pitcher similar to Zhang and it afforded him success for a couple seasons before he ran into a budget wall and needed to shed salary.

As a GM who has tried to jump a few levels too quickly and seen my team fall flat on its face every time, it's not worth it. You're not building a team to win 95 games for two or three seasons. You're building to win 95 games for much longer.

Sinking your costs into one player when your team is not close or able to stomach the salary hit isn't worth it.

You can look at my winning percentage as a reason to avoid my advice or realize my advice and record is exactly why you should listen to me. I have a lot of experience in doing the wrong thing even when I knew it was wrong.

That's what I'm hoping for.

[PaulC]

In other words,

If I gave Zhang that money to pitch in AAA before I knew what he would actually do, what good would that have for my team this year?

And what if he's a bust? Now I'm having to include a first or more so someone else can take on the risk?

No thank you.

He may end up being great but a team like Death Valley is EXACTLY the team that should and could take that kind of risk.

My thoughts exactly. It's the same reason teams like the Didgers, Red Sox, and Yankees do it. Smaller teams can afford, what they can't afford is the potential mistake a bad signing like that might be.

[Matt]

Matt could have signed him too.

I tried too. My scout had him at 5-6-7, a potential ace, 23 years old, and Durable.

Who wouldn't want that? Well worth the risk to me. When I was rebuilding I took crappy contacts from anyone for draft picks. Why wouldn't I take that same money and invest in a possible star for me down the road. A bird in hand is better than a few picks in the bush.

[umd]

Good grief... I'm a shitty GM!

Perhaps once the learning curve starts to level out... I'll understand how to better allocate my resources.

For now, most of those signings were to please an angry owner who's giving me my budget or to sign fans to increase my lousy fan interest.

Using your earlier posts about how to build wealth I chose to use your earlier ideas of spending money and getting a fans!!

#somuchtolearn

My point wasn't to call you a shitty GM, it was to point out that my higher payroll and budget didn't stop you (or anyone else) from signing Zhang like you mentioned in your response to Matt. You chose to do the other things with your money.