Offseason 2021 Schedule

[BradZ]

It is still weird. The tracker shows 29. Memphis (known owner) isn't listed as submitted, but Chicago (unknown owner) has. Maybe someone submitted a file from another league or something, it still seems a bit odd.

Damn, you're right. I miscounted. Memphis hasn't submitted a file. So one missing known owner. Still not sure what to make of that CHI file. I'll double check it again when the SIM goes live, but my prelim check of the file showed no transactions.

[Guest]

when will the draft utility be up?

[BradZ]

when will the draft utility be up?

The draft order and players have been in for a couple of days.

I didn't say anything because I didn't have the mock ready to go, but this morning everything should be in there. And by this morning, I mean now.

[Aston]

Wow, that's fast! Awesome.

And I guess I would not mind too much if the real draft went like the mock, for me. Ha! Landing the #6 and #12 players and #23 and #29.

[mike17]

When will we do the next file (FA 1.8)?

[BradZ]

When will we do the next file (FA 1.8)?

OP updated through the end of FA 1.12. Files for 1.8 are due by 4 PM ET tomorrow, the 4th.

[BradZ]

Heads up to everyone since it looks like the draft and FA are both winding down at the same time. We'll run FA 1.10 - 1.12 tomorrow evening, let's say 9pm ET.

[Guest]

Nice.

[Guest]

Heads up to everyone since it looks like the draft and FA are both winding down at the same time. We'll run FA 1.10 - 1.12 tomorrow evening, let's say 9pm ET.

Yes! One step closer to the great Utah player release in which I score more awesome players.

[Guest]

Yes! One step closer to the great Utah player release in which I score more awesome players.

yes i look forward to it as well kind of like the running of teh lemmings!

[Clay]

I never understood how to "guess" what a guy is eventually going to look like.

My 1st Rounder comes in 33/66. That seems pretty good to me... but what are people looking at to determine where they'll settle?

[Guest]

Pure optimism, usually. :)

[BradZ]

OP updated with the rest of the offseason SIM schedule. This should get us up to Week 1 of the regular season. Thanks!

[Guest]

I never understood how to "guess" what a guy is eventually going to look like.

My 1st Rounder comes in 33/66. That seems pretty good to me... but what are people looking at to determine where they'll settle?

i know the initial camp movement is big

other than than that i stick to the goat entrails myself, cause i thought my 60/60 saftery was a bust LOL

[Aston]

I never understood how to "guess" what a guy is eventually going to look like.

My 1st Rounder comes in 33/66. That seems pretty good to me... but what are people looking at to determine where they'll settle?

It's not as easy as it used to be, I think.

But you have to wait until training camp to get a good feel for it. If his potential climbs +/-2, it still can be hard to tell, especially with 60s guys. +3 I think is a solid sign, though some players drop more than 3 points in their first camp and end up gaining it all back and more over the course of their careers. Larger gains and drops usually mean that trend will continue for a good while. For example, my 2019 RB Glen Plummer came in 29/54, dropped 6 points in potential, and is now 33/33.

+5 is definitely no joke and even if a player comes in real low, like 20s, you should probably try to keep him. -4 or 5 or something on a player that starts really really high, I think the jury is still out. But if it's on a mediumish player, like in his 50s, I think it's usually quite a bad sign.

(This is all aside from huge changes in current and potential, which are when volatility kicks in, and makes it harder to tell what's going to end up happening. Volatility usually moves a lot of bars a great deal, especially the static bars like punishing hitter, speed to outside/powerinside/breakawway, sense rush, and big play receiving)

But I think TC is more unreliable than it used to be. Jim probably caught on to how obvious a tell it was (like how extremely high fan popularity used to predict player success) and muddled it up. You have to watch a player's development over the years...also, with that in mind, don't be discouraged by a guy who creeps up in TC in year one, and drops in potential in year 2. Could actually be a good sign, as it happens a lot with creepers, or so I've been told recently. Similarly, don't get too excited about guys that drop a lot in potential in TC1, and then gain some points in TC2. They'll probably keep dropping down.

Also keep in mind, none of this is about player development, but player "unmasking" - gradually revealing to you in their playercards their true ratings and bars. When a guy pops a +5 in his rookie camp, it's telling you that his true ratings are a lot higher than they show. Plenty of players unmask slowly, or just never finish unmasking. So when he "levels out" at 35/35, you can still feel pretty good that his actual ratings, are better than what you are seeing. Check his performance to make sure.

In the end, the first impression of TC is important, but you also really need to watch how a player performs on the field, which I think is pretty neat as that's how it should be