Tweet
I thought this quote was worth commenting on.
Let me stress this once again: we did NOT find out last night who had the best first day of the draft. We will have *some* indication of that after training camp. However, just like in real football, we won't really know for a couple more seasons. FYI, FOF players don't "improve" per se (apart from veteran booms and veteran busts). As they get experience, their red bars increase, yes, but they don't "progress" as some of you have called it. Here's more how it works...
Say you drafted a guy who appears on your roster as 20/60 right now. It is extremely unlikely that his *real* potential is 60. It could sit anywhere in a range from roughly 35ish to 85ish, if I remember my numbers correctly. What happens is that the longer he is in the league, the more accurate the scouts' view of him is. So, say his *real* potential is actually 45, but you give him lots of playing time and you have a mentor to further help him develop quickly. The ratings you see might change like this:
AFTER FIRST TRAINING CAMP: 22/57
AFTER PRESEASON: 25/56
AFTER REGULAR SEASON: 35/54
BEGIN NEXT OFFSEASON: 35/52
AFTER NEXT TRAINING CAMP: 39/48
AT SOME POINT NEXT SEASON WHEN HE GETS FULLY DEVELOPED: 45/45
He didn't "get worse." His true potential was 45 all along. It's just that the scouts had it wrong.
Similarly, if his true potential is 70, you'll see the potential number start to rise. To be clear on this: virtually every number that you see right now for your rookie players is WRONG. That's just what your scout thinks about him at the moment. The truth will be slowly revealed. It's a pretty good model.
CAVEAT: Veterans, based on volatility ratings, sometimes have random booms or random busts. Those ARE true ratings changes. A player with a "true" 45/45 rating might become a 60/60. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen.
CAVEAT 2: Some rookies, also based on volatility, will randomly boom or bust. Those are also true ratings changes. Again, it doesn't happen all that often, but we'll most certainly see a handful of late round picks increase as much as 20 points or so in training camp. And we'll also see a few of those guys you're excited about fall from 50/70 to 20/40 in training camp.
I hope this clears this up. Questions?
Originally posted by Acid
Say you drafted a guy who appears on your roster as 20/60 right now. It is extremely unlikely that his *real* potential is 60. It could sit anywhere in a range from roughly 35ish to 85ish, if I remember my numbers correctly. What happens is that the longer he is in the league, the more accurate the scouts' view of him is. So, say his *real* potential is actually 45, but you give him lots of playing time and you have a mentor to further help him develop quickly. The ratings you see might change like this:
AFTER FIRST TRAINING CAMP: 22/57
AFTER PRESEASON: 25/56
AFTER REGULAR SEASON: 35/54
BEGIN NEXT OFFSEASON: 35/52
AFTER NEXT TRAINING CAMP: 39/48
AT SOME POINT NEXT SEASON WHEN HE GETS FULLY DEVELOPED: 45/45
He didn't "get worse." His true potential was 45 all along. It's just that the scouts had it wrong.
Similarly, if his true potential is 70, you'll see the potential number start to rise. To be clear on this: virtually every number that you see right now for your rookie players is WRONG. That's just what your scout thinks about him at the moment. The truth will be slowly revealed. It's a pretty good model.
CAVEAT: Veterans, based on volatility ratings, sometimes have random booms or random busts. Those ARE true ratings changes. A player with a "true" 45/45 rating might become a 60/60. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen.
CAVEAT 2: Some rookies, also based on volatility, will randomly boom or bust. Those are also true ratings changes. Again, it doesn't happen all that often, but we'll most certainly see a handful of late round picks increase as much as 20 points or so in training camp. And we'll also see a few of those guys you're excited about fall from 50/70 to 20/40 in training camp.
I hope this clears this up. Questions?
Comment