Wish I Knew...

[Guest]

It's a statistics thing. While anything is possible because of randomness (example: landing heads 200 times in a row), even failing 4 at 50/50 only has a 6.25% chance.

Right, and I'm trying to tell you that 6.25% thing happened because of the dice rolls.

We all draft players in the 7th round who have less chance of being good than 6% and yet we all still seem to think we'll hit the lottery.

The dice rolls giveth and taketh away.

Everything in this game is based around them, any chance of booming or busting is tied to them. Think of age as being a debuff to a player. Let's say a 7th year RB will have a -50% on their dice roll for age* and a -25% because of their position. Then factor in a -10% "fuck you" X factor to keep things random and you've got a pretty decent chance of that player tanking. Hell, the chance of staying relevant as a 7th year RB are probably worse than that.

*Note: I said a "7th year" and that might factor less than "29 year old". I can't recall if its true age or years in-game that matter more.

Now, I made those numbers up completely so don't expect to take them as something that's been tested, but the buff/debuff idea can be applied to anything. For instance, cohesion is a buff. My guess is that high cohesion on a unit is something like a +10% buff on dice rolls. An OC with amazing Playcalling will give the team a +5% on any given play. Good Strength Coordinators may give +10% boost to injury avoidance. Etc.

Like I said, your theory makes for a good story, but underneath everything is cold, hard coding and formulas. I don't think there's any evidence or indication that OL performance has any effect on bar ratings, the poor OL performance comes out in the stats of the RB. (Also true of other positions. As far as we know, the only thing GOOD performance does to the ratings is increases how quickly someone develops. I haven't seen evidence that bad performances do anything to a player, everything is derived from the bars.)

The way I think of Training Camp is that if I spend more time on Passing I'll get a +5% this season, while I get a -5% on the Running I stole time from. I don't think TC has any effect on whether or not a player booms or busts after Ex2 or TC, but are instead modifiers for the rest of the season in a more general sense. (Except for QB's and formations, that is directly effected by TC.)

[Sharkn20]

Then factor in a -10% "fuck you" X factor to keep things random

hahahahahahaha Best Quote Ever

[Aston]

It's a statistics thing. While anything is possible because of randomness (example: landing heads 200 times in a row), even failing 4 at 50/50 only has a 6.25% chance.

I would say the relevant probability question to ask here is, given 32 teams with 4 tosses of coin, what are the odds that no team throws 4 tails?

If we take these as independent events and the odds of any given team not throwing 4 tails as a 93.75% probability, then the odds that all 32 will not throw 4 tails is .9375^32 = 12.7%, right?

[Sharkn20]

You are too clever guys

[Guest]

I would say the relevant probability question to ask here is, given 32 teams with 4 tosses of coin, what are the odds that no team throws 4 tails?

If we take these as independent events and the odds of any given team not throwing 4 tails as a 93.75% probability, then the odds that all 32 will not throw 4 tails is .9375^32 = 12.7%, right?

I didn't take that into account! Thanks for updating the statistic.

[IrishGuy65]

I would say the relevant probability question to ask here is, given 32 teams with 4 tosses of coin, what are the odds that no team throws 4 tails?

If we take these as independent events and the odds of any given team not throwing 4 tails as a 93.75% probability, then the odds that all 32 will not throw 4 tails is .9375^32 = 12.7%, right?

Yes. In other words, 1 over (16^32).

[Nemesis]

Assuming we're talking about everything here being 50/50. I would assume that decline/increase wouldn't be 50/50, but would have a teetering point based on age, the closer to that teetering point, the closer to 50/50 we get. It only gets muddier when decline/increase/maintain is thrown in.

...maths...

[Guest]

It's a statistics thing. While anything is possible because of randomness (example: landing heads 200 times in a row), even failing 4 at 50/50 only has a 6.25% chance.

I've seen worse shots than that hit in poker, including some poor fuck who went out the first hand of a tournament getting all his money in with the nut flush only to lose to a guy's gutshot draw to a straight flush. (only one card in the deck could save the guy with one card to come.)

A 6.25% chance isn't as crazy as one would think. No one thinks or notices the other 93.75% of the time.

[Guest]

I would say the relevant probability question to ask here is, given 32 teams with 4 tosses of coin, what are the odds that no team throws 4 tails?

If we take these as independent events and the odds of any given team not throwing 4 tails as a 93.75% probability, then the odds that all 32 will not throw 4 tails is .9375^32 = 12.7%, right?

^^^^ THIS RIGHT HERE.

[Nemesis]

I've seen worse shots than that hit in poker, including some poor fuck who went out the first hand of a tournament getting all his money in with the nut flush only to lose to a guy's gutshot draw to a straight flush. (only one card in the deck could save the guy with one card to come.)

A 6.25% chance isn't as crazy as one would think. No one thinks or notices the other 93.75% of the time.

When playing poker, just assume the 36/18 turn/river betting rule.

[Guest]

When playing poker, just assume the 36/18 turn/river betting rule.

I just assume people are going to call me down unless I know otherwise, but I never played higher than $2/$5. :)

[Guest]

When playing poker, just assume the 36/18 turn/river betting rule.

Can you please explain this rule (in poker terms, not FOF)? I don't know what it is?

[Nemesis]

Can you please explain this rule (in poker terms, not FOF)? I don't know what it is?

Call no more than 36% of the pot when you're bet into to see the turn, and call no more than 18% of the pot to see a river card, if chasing a flush. If you're chasing a straight, it's less. The real numbers are the 4/2 rule. 4 x Outs(for turn card), and 2 x Outs (for river card). So a gutshot straight would be 16/8 (4 outs). Open ender would be 32/16 (8 outs). If you hold a Pocket Pair and chasing a set, it's 8/4 (2 outs).

When I'm betting into someone myself, I tend to size my bets just over the rule in order to make my opponent call without the proper pot odds (making them call 37% pot odds if chasing a flush), while losing the least amount of money if I get drawn out on, and not giving them too little pot odds causing my own fate. In most cases you never really know what I'm holding because all my bets are the same roughly. And usually I bet based on the board.

The only time I really ever deviate from calling with correct pot odds, is when I intend on floating a continuation bet. And I'll do that with just about any hand, if I get caught, I get caught. Just have to pick your spots. ;)

[Guest]

Man, those percentages seem tricky! I learned it this way (All other things being equal) 4:1 pot odds for flush draw 5:1 for outside straight, 11:1 for gutshot with one card to come. If for some reason I knew some cards were out (for instance someone exposed) I'd adjust based on the remaining outs.

I haven't played poker in years, I miss it sometimes! That's what moving around and having no local poker games will do to you.

[Nemesis]

Man, those percentages seem tricky! I learned it this way (All other things being equal) 4:1 pot odds for flush draw 5:1 for outside straight, 11:1 for gutshot with one card to come. If for some reason I knew some cards were out (for instance someone exposed) I'd adjust based on the remaining outs.

I haven't played poker in years, I miss it sometimes! That's what moving around and having no local poker games will do to you.

Some people use odds that way, or with percentages, I found percentages easier because I could figure out the pot odd percentages and compare to drawing out percentages easier.

And yeah, of course you adjust if you think someone is drawing to a gutshot, and needs a 5, and you're holding 55, you can already play it as a 1 outter.

I used to play a TON of poker. I was staked at FullTilt for a while by a dude who recognized me. We used to play alot of private games at PokerStars where we'd have guest PokerStars Pros join. I've played with nanonoko and a few other pros. I think at one time I was playing 40-50 forty-five man games a day, and 5 10k+ entry tournaments a day. I was a real student of the game for a long time and had alot of Poker School Online instructors that I could privately talk about the game with.

.... and then black friday ....