2016 Outlook

[Aston]

Now that we're through TC, what's the outlook for your team? Let's talk rookies and season predictions here.

[Aston]

Utah

Bleak. "The WRs" are all we got. I looked through some past posts from Rip Murdoch, the previous Utah owner, who was citing concerns about Utah's aging on offense, and how the dynamic WR duo of Viola and Quinteros weren't getting any younger...yeah, that was four seasons ago. These guys are ancient. Viola is 35, and Quinteros is 30 (despite having 11 years of experience; wow, he skipped college or something)...but Quint is the one that's dropping faster.

This year, we got an upgrade at QB and LT to bolster the attack while everyone else withers into retirement homes. Last year's competent starter, 33 year old Aaron Barret, went from 46/46 to 47/47, so it looks like infused starter Ellis Wynn (34 years old, 55/55) is going to have a battle on his hands. Interesting that they're just over a year apart in age, since Barrett's in his 7th year and Wynn has 14 under his belt.

And the draft wasn't what we hoped:

UFA WR Kris Ensley 21/32->24/31 - meh
1.24 LT Willie Sidharta 35/58->34/57 - didn't go through TC, so I don't know what this means
2.23 RT Jesse Wagner 28/41->30/42 - that was a freakin' small bump.
3.22 DE Howard Foley 16/56->16/45 - Oops, all my other DEs literally dropped off the map, except for last year's top pick. I'm gonna need some FAs.
6.09 DT Oliver Bastyr 23/33->25/34 - Well, that's something.
3.10 ILB Howard Cote 34/45->39/47 - pretty disappointed, hope he'll rise above this
4.21 OLB Cole Vinson 22/37->28/41 - there we go! a pleasant surprise from my most 'meh' pick of the draft. That's good, because I'll need him.
7.08 OLB Bryce Gangi 12/57->15/51 - well, that's ok. I got my 4 OLBs.
3.21 CB Bo Stanton 33/46->33/41 - #@@#fd! no good...3rd round corners are no good...
UFA FS Lonnie McCarthy 14/49->16/41 - why'd I even keep this guy? I knew something like this was gonna happen...

We were lucky to make it to the conference finals last year after sneaking into the playoffs with a 9-7 wildcard berth. I think we'll be extremely fortunate to duplicate that this year. Wynn will be the x-factor if he improves on Barrett, who didn't have a bad season at all last year, and he'll have an improved line in front of him. On the other hand, my not-even-so-old DEs and corners had huge ratings drops this year.

I'm thinking 9-7 again...optimistically. Should go no lower than 6-10. With our luck though, if we do make the playoffs, I'm guessing we'll go to the bowl and win it or something.

[Guest]

last year was 7-9
this year 10-6

Defense will be a little better
Offense will be a little better

1.11 ILB BORDERS 56/79 post tc --- 78 eventually
2.10 TE Hipwell 34/65 --- 60 eventual
3rd round WR BUST IN TC
4th CB Schebele -- creaper 21/37 45 eventual
5th DT GEORGE 21/48 42 eventual
6th DE Poore 15/40 36 eventual
7th S murry 23/42 38 eventual

[Pat]

Portland Phantoms - 2016 Outlook

Rookies
1.25 - WLB - Ernie Hou - 34/45 -- 37/46 I expected a higher increase in potential here. I think he will continue to get better and better. He will start right away at WLB and I fully expect 8+ sacks with the talent around him and his pass rush skills.
2.14 - MLB - Don Peller - 26/67 -- 33/67 I thought he was going to drop. He will start immediately at WILB.
4.25 - OLB - Marvin Kaplan - 25/55 -- 31/51 I expected a fall. He probably ends up being a 45. Not bad for a 4th. Moved him inside, looks like a run-stuffer.
5.27 - WR - Heath Steude - 18/59 -- 24/54 I expected a bigger fall. 54 potential still? Probably ends up in the 40s, but maybe he will surprise.
6.26 - LG - Toby Rabe - 18/38 -- 21/40 Love the increase. Will make the roster.
7.25 - RT - Allen Newsom - 17/28 -- 19/29 Not a huge boost, but maybe?
UDFA - ILB - Ed Whitehead - 14/43 -- 20/50 I had Whitehead on my "priority list" since my 5th round pick, but since I had drafted three LBs to that point, I didn't select him. I signed him right away in Free-Agency and wow. If he lives up to the ratings, this is a huge steal.

2016 Outlook

Well, last year my team went 10-6, won the division and lost in the first round. Offensively, my biggest holes are at SE and RT. Besides that, I'm very happy with my squad on that side of the ball. The line should be great as a whole and I have decent WR depth and studs at QB and RB.

Defensively, I'm not sure what to expect. Switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and I'm playing a handful of rookies. My defensive line is solid with a lot of depth. My linebackers are deep but inexperienced. The secondary will be my weakness yet again. Couldn't land any impact players in Free-Agency or the draft.

Special teams, I have a great punter, average kicker and poor returners.

Probably 9-10 wins. Should be a battle in the division.

[Guest]

Camden - 2016

Key Retirements

WR Eric Fleming
LB Riddick Melton
LG Neil Lane
CB Sean Peterson

Key Free Agent Signings

None

Rookies

1.23 RG Nick Brooks 41/59 (+6/+6)

Nice movement from our fist round pick. Brooks' training camp progress means that 12 year vet Marvin Ulrich's time on our team has likely come to an end and former 2nd round pick Scott Yamamoto is on the block.

2.22 RT Larry Okuyama 25/37 (+5/+5)

Gained almost as much potential in camp as Brooks, but he came in so low it hardly matters. A couple more camps like this and he could secure a job as a backup.

4.20 LB Teddy Turtschin 27/52 (+2/-4)

Bad camp to be an inside linebacker on our team. Turtschin will likely hang around until his rookie contract is up.

5.19 QB Ron Bloomgarden 9/28 (+3/+0)

Wasted pick.

6.24 LB Ricky Dreyfuss 17/42 (+4/-1)

Reminds me of former 6th round pick Ike Yeager. I cut Yeager.

7.23 CB Leonard Johnson 24/51 (+10/+6)

Second consecutive year I've gotten a pleasant suprise out of my seventh round choice (last year's Mr. Irrelevant is going to be this year's starting LG). Johnson comes just in time as starting CB Bernie Glendenning has hit the wall.


Other Training Camp Notables

LB Gene Lane 43/43 (-11/-11)
TE Nick Devitt 46/46 (-8/-8)
RB Alan Weber 33/33 (+2/-8 )
LB Antione Holmberg 40/40 (-6/-6)
CB Bernie Glendenning 45/45 (-6/-6)
LB Moe Wolf 35/35 (-6/-6)
SS Louie Green 66/66 (-5/-5)
RG Marvin Ulrich 46/46 (-5/-5)
WR Pat Garcia 31/31 (-5/-5)

Lane, Holmberg, Wolf, Green and Glendenning were all penciled in as starters on defense before this camp began. Now only Green's job is secure.

Offensively things look a bit better. We already knew Weber wasn't going to be a replacement for Pint and Devitt had already lost his starting job to Vernon Ogden. Ulrich has two or three players lined up to be his replacement and Garcia was only on the team for the affinity and as a return man.


Overall

Not a good off season for us. All of our "big" free agent signings (Strickland, Smith, Ferotte, Fisk) were for new position leaders and backups with affinities. Despite half of our draft choices posting gains in training camp, it's hard to get excitied about our selections. Our best pick was at arguably our position of least need and one lucky 7th round pick is the only other pick worth mentioning.

Offensively this is Casey Baumgartner's team now. I was a bit disapointed to not see him pick up a couple more points of potential this TC, but if he at least fills into his current bars he'll be good enough for my needs. His top targets look like Garner and Ogden, but 11th year man Corey Page suprised me this training camp. Cedric Pint is still our best option when it comes to the ground game, but expect to see a lot more of Tom Church this year.

Defensively the only changes made came in the form of retirements and the inevitable decline of my aging players. Hopefully I can get one more year out of these guys before I have to completely retool.

Predition

With a bit of luck I still think we can compete for the division this year, but that's only because it's still the weakest division in the league. That having been said, I think Boston takes the division crown this year.

Last Year: 9-7
This Year: 7-9

Wins: Brooklyn, St. Paul, Baltimore, Chicago, Brooklyn, Boston, Washington
Losses: Kalispel, Columbus, Dakota, North Liberty, San Francisco, Anchorage, Boston, Portland, Baltimore

[Guest]

Washington Bombers

Key losses - DE Roger Boren (retirement)

Key FAs - none. Apart from the rookies, this is very much the same team. 10 starters return on offense, and 10 on defense as well. New RB, RDE, kicker and punter.

Rookies

1.6 - RB A.J. McGee 44/51 -> 47/54 (+3/+3) - Decent enough jump in TC cements his position. Not that there was any competition for him at RB, but he looks legit at least. Starter, and key addition.

3.4 - CB Van Friedgen 22/60 -> 25/52 (+3/-8) - Darn. Was hoping for not such a precipitous drop. Has good coverage skills, so should be an ok backup.

3.8 - RB Brett Cochrane 44/56 -> 18/55 (WR move) -> 20/49 (+2/-6) - Risk, no reward. Thought he'd make a better WR. Still will see some time, and probably be the main punt returner.

4.4 - K Hunter Bauer 50/86 -> 51/82 (+1/-4) - Good enough.

5.2 - P Myron Fennell 32/77 -> 31/67 (-1/-10) - Ouch. I honestly think this is the first time I've seen a negative in actual ratings in TC. Probably doesn't stay.

5.20 - S Walter Pittard 33/56 -> 37/52 (+4/-4) - About what you'd expect, but still good looking bars. Not expecting much out of a backup SS, think he'll fit the bill just fine.

6.7 - FB Corwin Metzenbaum 32/44 -> 36/48 (+4/+4) - I thought his initial numbers looked low. Great complement to FB Elliott for now, excellent pass-blocker. Should be ready to take over once Elliott leaves.

6.19 - TE Chris Bermudez 26/45 -> 28/41 (+2/-4) - Meh, but still some interesting bars. Can use him some.

7.6 - QB Danny Fulcher 12/42 -> 14/39 (+2/-3) - Don't see anything here to make him worth the spot.

7.24 - DE Don McAllister 12/37 -> 3/48 (MLB move) -> 4/41 (+1/-7) Promising move to LB, then takes a dump in camp. Gone.

7.29 - DT Gino McElroy 19/26 -> 22/29 (+3/+3) - nice move, and some good bars for a 7th. Probably stays for the season at least.

The Old Guard

Roger Boren retired. RB Randy Richardson, FB Jamal Elliott, WR Albert Porter, DE Broderick Chrebet, and CB Rodney Westbrook all went -6/-6 in camp. This is very much an 'out with the old' year.

In With the New

WR Jumbo Gordon went +2/+2, for a total of +5/+5 in the off-season. Gordon went +9/+4 last season, and has shaped into a decent player at 41/41.

TE Brandon Klotz was undrafted last year, picked up by Phoenix for the season, and now is on the Bombers roster. He looks to be a long-term fixture here, as he went +4/+1 in camp to a very promising 38/52.

Stud OT Marcus Martin has come to play this year. +8/+7 in camp to go to 84/84.

Helping with the Boren departure, a pair of 2nd year DEs stepped up. Bubba Snyder went +5/+1 in camp, and Pete Lundgren, with the help of summer league, jumped +8/+6. He will probably start in Boren's old spot.


2016 Outlook

At a glance, this is a team that has a net loss of Roger Boren at DE and a net gain of AJ McGee at RB. Boren will be missed, but the addition of a real running back is more key to getting better than the lack of one DE. Junior Bullock is still a one-man wrecking crew on the line, and as mentioned, there is some youth there waiting to compete.

Overall, the team is very 'average' to 'good' across the board on offense, and has three legitimate superstars on defense. That formula should put them in the 8-9 win range. The weakness now is at WR. Harold Rogers is a decent threat at TE, but without quality WRs, it'll be hard to be agressive or play from behind.

[Guest]

Portland Phantoms - 2016 Outlook\

very good draft Pat

[Pat]

very good draft Pat

Thanks!

A lot of it was luck.

[Lintyfresh85]

Training Camp Results:

1.9 - C Winfred Lasica - 45/87 -> 51/86 (6/-1) - Can't really complain. I think he should probably top out in the high 70's, low 80's

2.5 - DE Walt Jourden - 23/52 -> 26/55 (3/3) - Nice little bump from Jourden. Probably won't see too much more of an increase. Will battle for playing time.

2.8 - TE Norbert Edwards - 41/64 -> 45/59 (4/-5) - Uh oh. A -5 drop in TC is not a good sign. I've had bad luck drafting TE's the last two years... maybe I should just move away from drafting them.

3.9 - G Mike Sweeney - 17/54 -> 20/56 (3/2) - Small bump, but Sweeney should be a helpful part of our OL. Not sure how much playing time he'll get right away... but he'll eventually see action.

4.8 - WR Teddy Joseph - 20/33 -> 23/32 (3/-1) - Obviously a mis-pick on my part. Joseph will have to battle just for a roster spot in the preseason.

5.9 - OLB Emmitt Kevorkian - 13/28 -> 15/29 (2/1) - Another bad pick... I think its time for Kevorkian to pick up the family trade... because football is certainly not his thing.

6.8 - CB Sedrick Waller - 17/36 -> 21/36 (4/0) - Eh. Who cares. Another bad pick on my part.

7.9 - CB Leland Buckner - CUT

[Jake]

Charlotte Cougars

1.15 - OLB Robert Jamison - 30/43 - 38/51 - 8/8 - Extremely happy, but I don't know if this is a natural "creep" or a boom. FOF vets, any thoughts?

2.27 - CB Kelvin Strickland - 28/69 - 31/61 - 3/-8 - Dang it. That's a big drop. But if he ends up in the high 40's, low 50's, I'll be alright.

3.13 - C Deon Poston 30/74 - Missed TC.

3.27 - DT Emmitt Richmond 25/44 - 25/41 - 0/-3. Tons of fun.

4.12 - OT Brandon Hodges 16/52 - 19/49 - 3/-3 Eh.

5.11 - OG Marvin Caldwell 26/46 - Missed TC

6.10 - RB Kenny Prescott 16/30 - 19/30 - 3/0 - Who cares.

7.15 - FS Desmond Shannon 18/33 - Getting cut.

UDFA QB Dana Booker - 6/26 - 9/30 - +3/+4 - I liked Booker and probably overpaid for him but I thought he had a shot to do something like this. Still not going to be anything special, but maybe he can be a nice backup.

[Aston]

I liked Booker and went after him in FA2...not hard enough, although I remember the contracts were pretty close. Congrats on getting him.

[Guest]

1.12 Matt Jeffries RCB 40/49----> 40/48 im hoping this is cause he wasnt signed

2.11 Marcus Ramsey QB 14/50 -----> 14/47 another hold out so not too worried especially cause hes not going to start right away

4.15 Rondell Starks OLB 30/54 ----> 38/51 wow very happy here great pass rusher could be the opening day starter

5.14 Rod Fears TE 17/43 ----> 20/42 nice safe creep could be a good "value" pick

6.13 Horace Galasinski K 56/71 ---> 59/71 ok now i got my special teams on lock. just looking for a good nick name. "kick glass"? "glass man"? "glass kicker"? "polish cannon"?

7.12 Ken Grebene K 43/56 - yeah turns out i didnt need 2 kickers just wasted 1 draft pick doh!

lots of turnover this year gone are Brenden Kronek, Norbert Rattan, R.J. Gabbard and original Rider Floyd Foug.

so im officially rebuilding and looking to the future, with a new stadium in the works.
so probably another below .500 season hopefully not too far tho 6 maybe 7 wins as youth is served