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(There’s actually 6 ‘up’, 6 ‘down’, and 1 ‘strange’ 
)
I wanted to take a look back at this past OSFL draft, and come up with a list (pre-camp) of some of the more interesting rookies of the class, that I felt I had a good beat on. FOF drafting isn’t voodoo magic, or even especially mysterious, but if you go into it blind, it can be overwhelming. I’ve been there, and while I’m no zbuck/chuck/Julio/etc,etc, I want to hopefully shed what light I can, based on what I've slowly gathered over the seasons.
The players here aren’t the best or the worst in the draft - just some illustrations of general drafting principles. Looking at the collection of them will, I hope, be illuminating. As always, different philosophies apply, etc. Follow anything blind at your peril
Okay then, let’s get to it!
<div style='width:460px;background:#eee;box-shadow:2px 2px 6px #666; -moz-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; -webkit-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; padding: 5px; margin:0 auto;font-family:serif !important;text-align:center;font-variant: small-caps'><p style='font-size:250%;font-weight:bold;margin:0;padding:0'>5<span style='color:#081'>UP</span></p></div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=100
" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">G Daniel Livesey</a> (KAL - 5.14)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Let’s start with a guy who actually isn’t going to get a training camp bump (probably). Livesey is just a straight forward outlier. Guards do not run sub-5.00 dash unless they are pretty exceptional run blockers. You will see a great many high bars that are flat out lying - but this Run Block bar isn’t one of them.
It’s worth noting too, that while 7.90 is not a very good agility score, but it’s sort of a baseline, the same way that 7.80 is for tackles. That is to say, it’s unlikely that even a halfway-decent pass blocker would turn in a 7.9 (G) or 7.8 (T). But any lower and you can almost be assured that the corresponding bar will be pretty lackluster.
Pay attention to the exceptional combine scores. I mean, there are red scores and then there are red scores. </div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=75
" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">T Deion Dar Dar</a> (CHA - 5.04)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Going with our second offensive linemen, we have from Central Naboo U, the 6’4, 285-lb Dar Dar Binks.
A lot of signs that he’s heavily masked. All the non-static bars are below what they should be, given his pretty solid combine. Even endurance has a shot at climbing. Remember that if a bar’s not static, the bars you see could be lying. Players usually are in the range of what their combines suggest.
Dar Dar also has a block strength bar that is at least as good as it should be, and maybe better. And this bar pattern is a pretty common one for masked blockers: high RB, BS, with low pass blocking. Just beware of guys with that pattern, but a terrible agility score or other unsupporting combines. They are going to have terrible pass blocking. Dar Dar though, should have a very nice TC bump.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=134" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">RB Richard Dauber</a> (CAM - 4.25)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Sticking with offense again. RBs are, for me, one of the trickiest positions to draft. They’re so hard to nail down - there’s a lot of stuff going on with them and a lot of combines. And worse, you always seem to be able to find a few good rushers as undrafted rookies anyway. So it’s always good when you get a guy you can have a pretty clear beat on.
Dauber is that guy. His resemblance to my underrated RB from last year, Ryan Green, is actually pretty uncanny. One big tell here is that nice Power Inside bar. It’s always a good thing when you have a static bar that clearly outdoes the combine, and this is one of them. From his sole and pos-drill, we can also gather that a number of his other low bars are headed on the ups (HR, blitz pickup, 3rd down catching).
Dauber has a few bad combine scores that give me pause. The 4.74 is bad news. The 7.34 is right on the borderline of not being acceptable. The 111 broad jump is really poor. So this is a guy that is going to have several holes in his game. He won’t have great endurance or breakaway. His STO won’t be great either, but we can see pretty clearly where it is, and it isn’t too bad. Meanwhile, being VU means that a lot of his other bars, some of the more critical ones such as HR and blitz pickup, are poised to move up. Possibly big, given how he came out (24/27, while only being 51% developed).</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=50" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">DT Kennedy McDaniel</a> (CHA - 3.2)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">For defenders, outlying static bars can be harder to figure out. DL, for instance, have the PRS and PH static bars both contributing to their bench rep #. If a guy has high PRS for his bench, is it just because he has lower PH?
In this case, we have sort of the reverse, only the PH is way, way, WAY out there! His PRS could be on the low side, but the PH being way on the high side is a solid sign that he is going to be better than he looksl. McDaniel’s dash is not good, but it isn’t in ‘alarming’ territory quite yet. In any case, his strength will lie in his run defense. His combines aren’t spectacular, so you aren’t looking at a 60/60 beast, or anything. But he is no slouch and will be getting a nice training camp bump, and should end up being a useful player.
The drawbacks? There are drawbacks even for creeping VU players. Here, the pass rushing is a concern. His PRT will rise, but it’s got “average” as a ceiling. His PRS is well below average. And his sole is not great. That would be fine if he had something like 0 or 5 or some other very low intel number (the sole contributes to both the play diagnosis bar, and a player’s intelligence score. If too much of the sole is taken up by the intel, there’s not a whole lot left over to go into the Play Diag bar, if it helps to think of it that way). As stands, 22 sole / 41 intel strikes me as leaving the ceiling on the Play Diag bar as also “decent”, but not great.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=288" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">S Corey Maiher</a> (DAK - 3.13)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Maiher is one of the more intriguing ones I wanted to talk about. He doesn’t quite scream out ‘mask’, but there are a few good signs. He was the safety I wanted to nab out of this draft and thought I could get to.
The comment on play diagnosis from the guy above makes a good segway here, because Maiher has 24 sole - which on the surface looks pretty meh - but only 9 intel. How can such a dumbass notch a low, but still respectable sole score? It’s because his play diagnosis projects to be pretty good. The good thing about Maiher here is that his PD bar is low. That gives it room to climb. If his PD bar was in that 70-100 range, then this would not be a good sign for Maiher being a creeper. At best, that bar would hold, and could even fall. You’d have to hope he shows other signs of climbing.
However, 24 sole, 9 intel, low PD bar - probably fairly safe to guess that play diagnosis is heading up for him.
The other good thing about Maiher is that outlying zone bar. A lot of pretty humble bars, and then a single very high bar *can* be a good sign. When this happens, you can expect the zone bar to drop, while other bars gain.The good news with Maiher is that he has a strong combine overall, and he doesn’t have all sorts of other high bars that are poised to fall. We’ll see with the next five a few guys whose bars are going to rearrange, but are the kind that are going to drop like rocks in training camp.</div>
<div style='width:460px;background:#eee;box-shadow:2px 2px 6px #666; -moz-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; -webkit-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; padding: 5px; margin:0 auto;font-family:serif !important;text-align:center;font-variant: small-caps'><p style='font-size:250%;font-weight:bold;margin:0;padding:0'>5<span style='color:#b02'>DOWN</span></p></div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=162" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">CB Carl Covington</a> (KAL - 2.19)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Covington is a textbook-perfect case of what I wanted to look at - someone who for many reasons might look good, even great, only he has a few GLARING indicators that say otherwise.
If you’re only looking at bar patterns without combines, these would look a lot like “Man/End” and “Zone/ST” coverage pairs. But not really. What are coverage pairs? Man/End and Zone/ST are bars that are often paired together in their unmasking, either up or down (the same with GD/END and RR/ST in receivers). When you have something that looks like this, and the corner has say, a 4.40 dash, then yeah, be excited. The M2M bar is going to shoot up. (see NLB’s corner from the ‘24 draft)
But what Covington really has...is a ton of high bars completely unsupported by his combine. Quick rundown:
—4.58 is worse than bad, it’s awful.
—7.27 agility (likewise)
—32 position drill (likewise)
That is one unholy trifecta of bottom-feeding combines! I don’t know why none of them show up as green, because they are all bad, bad bad news. His high bars are all going to drop, probably severely. His already near-zero man/end bars, if they climb, aren’t getting far.
If Malcpow’s study has numbers that still hold, then once you get past 4.52, 7.20, or 37 PSPEC, you fall off a cliff. There are corners with even very good ratings in Man/Zone/Run Def/INT right up to those boundaries. Below that, you’re flirting with disaster in the relevant skill.
*The corresponding numbers for safeties, with similar fall-off-cliff-ness, seem to be 4.59, 7.35, and 37.
There’s one last sneaky trick Carl Covington has up his sleeve, however, which is a high punishing hitter bar. It’s clearly a good PH bar given his 14 bench reps, which are neither good nor bad. However, judging whether a defensive back is going to be a creeper or faller based on just a good static bar is dangerous -- the bench press combine is generated based on both his PH bar, and his BnR bar. Given the many numerous really bad signs about Covington, I would say this just means his BnR is going to be dropping heavily too, just like everything else.
I’d also add play diagnosis to the dropping heavily list. 20 sole, 31 intel isn’t a bad combination, but not for that 70-100 looking PD bar. That is way too high.
</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=118" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">WR Jeff Berry</a> (WAC - 2.22)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">The good: BPR solid, probably on the high side of a 4.48. Those white bars are not exact “this is what you should expect”, of course: merely middle of the range type stuff. So, it’s good that the BPR is at least in the range and possibly above - and an added plus that BPR is such a useful bar.
The 17 sole is low, but not killer. He has extremely low intel (8) to sort of compensate for that. The position drill score is quite good, and typically results in pretty solid avoid/adjust bars, but they can be all over the place. A 54 probably correlates pretty strongly with good avoid/adjust bars (I don’t know how strongly), but it doesn’t guarantee it. So, you’d have to ask, how does the the rest of the player look?
The answer is pretty bad. The 7.20 agility line is about the same for corners with Run Defense as it is for receivers with Get Downfield. Berry has mostly all high bars to begin with; with a 7.45 agility, you *know* that GD is coming down hard. He also has a pair of pretty high PR bars, but a broad jump that is quite bad. So those are bars that are coming down too, probably substantially. When a number of bars are headed down, I tend to think all of the ones that can, are also going to crash.
In the end, he does have the BPR, and that can’t be negated. If it’s only the GD and END that get seriously hosed, the saving grace is he’s still a useful player - just a far cry from where he looks now.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=28" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">WR Bill Croteau</a> (BKL - 1.15)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Croteau is probably too good to not end up a quality player. However, for what his combine looked like... it’s probably going to be disappointing.
The 38 sole & 18 bench are why his combine is so good. With 90 intel, I’m not sure. 38’s really high anyway so his RR might be up there, but it could also have room to fall. The 18 bench is a very rare score for a receiver, so he’ll have good courage. That should hold.
But he still has too many dang high bars to really believe in him. Maybe if I knew his BPR were say, 80, I’d feel differently. As stands, I think he figures to see his GD fall to a middling level. He could be a very solid receiver with great ST value nonetheless - but for a high round 1, or a #28 overall in the draft, with an exceptional combine score, he looks on the low end.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=346" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">TE Jamal Newton</a> (MTC - 4.22)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Newton isn’t as bad as he first looked to me. The issue here is simply that the 40 and agility times are nightmarishly bad. 4.92, and 8.29 - it hardly gets much worse. But they could have been substantially better #s while still being just as bad signs.
So it probably doesn’t matter just how extremely low those two are. Newton is not going to be a very good receiver. His BPR is low, and he’ll have nearly no GD. His run-blocking, and everything else, is going to drop as well.
Where he’s left is a goalline, adequate blocking (hopefully) TE3 who is a good long-snapper (85 by the right click; very nice!). The kind of player who will drop a ton in camp, but still have just the right utility to stick around on the roster.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=36" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">DT Tracy Watach</a> (CHI - 2.31)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">His combine looks good because of two things: 32 bench reps, and 7.66 agility. Neither of those are extraordinary, and all of his other bars are way too high.
15 sole/22 intelligence — not enough to support that play diagnosis bar. At best, it holds, but it’s likely headed for a tumble. 7.66 - solid enough score, but not for a RD quite so high. That’ll come down to earth a bit. 5.11 - this one is a very bad score.
He’ll always have the PRS to fall back on, and could be a passable enough run defender. It just seems like he will be a far cry from the 30/59 he might look like now. Oh well, maybe TC will prove me wrong! If it does, I’ll have to look a lot closer at that 5.11 time and the PRT bar. My understanding is it is pretty extraordinarily bad, and I almost can’t see how it is going to drop so far from where it is now. I mean, it’s 13/62 now, and I’m expecting it to wind up at maybe 20 as a best-case...</div>
<div style='width:460px;background:#eee;box-shadow:2px 2px 6px #666; -moz-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; -webkit-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; padding: 5px; margin:0 auto;font-family:serif !important;text-align:center;font-variant: small-caps'><p style='font-size:250%;font-weight:bold;margin:0;padding:0'>1<span style='color:#dc6'>STRANGE</span></p></div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=14" style="color:#ca2" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">QB Bryan Maston</a> (STP - 1.32)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">The enigma of the draft class! This is a fun one to talk about because QBs are hard to figure out, and Maston is no exception. He can go so far in either direction. Career backup, flaky starter? Or mega-steal, franchise player?
The positives: QB combines are all over the place. Maston isn’t a scrambler, but that’s probably a minor issue to most. None of his other combines really limit him or pin him down to a certain ceiling or other. For a 35 sole, low (33) intel is a pretty nice sign. Forget what his agil is, he has a 70-100 Sense Rush bar, and that’s a VERY good sign.
The negatives: a ton of unusually high bars. His SR being so high, maybe that means his other bars hit the high range of what their combines usually support, too. Reaaaal tough for me to bet on that, though, but I’m more of a pansy about QBs than most. Also, he’s 5’11, and there is this idea that shorter QBs, particularly sub-6’0 guys, have a harder time with interceptions. Combined with what could be a high Read Def bar, and a not-absurdly-low-yet 33 intel, it puts a slight damper on that not-quite-super-high sole score.
I love this pick, though. It is scary how much he resembles <a href="http://www.cyberfootballleague.com/fof_draft/show_player.php?player_id=9" style="color:#ca2" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">QB Ty Kinney (CyFL 2028 Draft - 1.12)</a>Just look:
Almost an exact match in agility and pos drill, an exact match in broad jump. That same extremely high Sense Rush bar, a great sign that’s also dragged down by a lot of other super high bars. Kinney has a few things over Maston - 36 sole / 03 intel, 6’1 height, scrambling ability - but has a notably lower bench press. Nemesis (CLB owner here) and I were both after Kinney big time, and he got him at 1.12.
So I don’t really have a read here. I love this pick, though. At 1.32, it’s a lowish investment for what might turn out to be an outstanding franchise player. If he really putters out, you got a guy who at least doesn’t take sacks out there, and you haven’t thrown a super high pick or a ton of money at him. Maston vs the creeping, but 10/31 Stephen McMaster at 1.31 will be one to follow.</div>
<div style='width:460px;background:#eee;box-shadow:2px 2px 6px #666; -moz-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; -webkit-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; padding: 5px; margin:0 auto;font-family:serif !important;text-align:center;font-variant: small-caps'><p style='font-size:250%;font-weight:bold;margin:0;padding:0'>2<span style='color:#06c'>SIDE-BY-SIDE</span></p></div>
Two more players I wanted to discuss, one up, one down, just because of how similar they were to one another.
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=62" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">OLB Ronnie Lee</a> (MTC - 2.18)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">I would’ve included Lee in the first list if not for his Bizarro twin, because he’s probably the best example I have. This guy SCREAMS “I’m MASKED!”. Really screams it.
The rundown: 15 sole is not good, but the 6 intel could pull that up to acceptable levels. 7.08 is pretty much right on the edge of being a completely outstanding score. Lee is going to be a very good run-stuffer, not much doubt about that one. His pass rush tech won’t be special - the 4.73 is pretty limiting, I believe - but it doesn’t shut him out of anything other than 3-4 WLB. That PRS is really something special, and so is the BnR.
The BnR here is a case of a guy with a lot of low non-static bars, except for one, which is super high. That’s a pretty common sign of a mask, again, and BnR is definitely a good bar to look at for this kind of thing. That is, guys with good combines, a lot of humble bars, and then one way out of whack maxed-out BnR. The BnR will fall - maybe - but I am pretty sure Lee is VU and the other bars, especially Run Defense, are going to have a handsome amount of room to climb.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=547" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">OLB Ken Collazo</a> (BOS - UDFA)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Now Lee’s evil clone. If you ask me, this bar pattern also screams “mask” in a big way. The broad jump and pos drill, neither are bad or good scores, and with the other low bars they look like a legitimate set of cover pairs. And then you have that out-of-whack Bump bar as well.
But then you go look at his combines. How is this guy going to stop the run if he can’t maneuver his way around a good offensive tackle? How is he going to rush the passer with a 40 time so bad it would make you move a DE inside? And if your linebacker can’t rush the passer or stop the run, what possible utility is he going to have?
Now all those “low” bars (RD, PRT, PD) look high anyway. If that bump falls, all these other ones are also likely to fall.
Guys like these are pretty rare, I think. But they do serve as a good reminder that even when you see a very masked-looking bar signature, you should make sure the combine supports it. It reminds me of a corner with a bad combine I saw once in the CyFL who had a solid PH bar, low bars everywhere, and then very high matching Man/End. That’s the type of thing that screams VU - except he crashed in camp. Why? Because of what must’ve been a similarly bad combine. When those Man/End bars fell, there was nothing else to go up. They were masked pairs - but all that meant was they were both coming down.</div>
—
So, that’s it. Hope this is useful/interesting/whatever to some people and can serve maybe as a reference for what sort of things you might consider when evaluating a player. At the least it’s about everything that I’d consider.
Let’s see if TC and their ensuing careers, support what I’ve had to say! Would be thrilled if some of these guys proved me wrong and I could look back and see what happened. It’d mean I’d have to really change some of my thinking.
)I wanted to take a look back at this past OSFL draft, and come up with a list (pre-camp) of some of the more interesting rookies of the class, that I felt I had a good beat on. FOF drafting isn’t voodoo magic, or even especially mysterious, but if you go into it blind, it can be overwhelming. I’ve been there, and while I’m no zbuck/chuck/Julio/etc,etc, I want to hopefully shed what light I can, based on what I've slowly gathered over the seasons.
The players here aren’t the best or the worst in the draft - just some illustrations of general drafting principles. Looking at the collection of them will, I hope, be illuminating. As always, different philosophies apply, etc. Follow anything blind at your peril
Okay then, let’s get to it!
<div style='width:460px;background:#eee;box-shadow:2px 2px 6px #666; -moz-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; -webkit-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; padding: 5px; margin:0 auto;font-family:serif !important;text-align:center;font-variant: small-caps'><p style='font-size:250%;font-weight:bold;margin:0;padding:0'>5<span style='color:#081'>UP</span></p></div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=100
" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">G Daniel Livesey</a> (KAL - 5.14)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Let’s start with a guy who actually isn’t going to get a training camp bump (probably). Livesey is just a straight forward outlier. Guards do not run sub-5.00 dash unless they are pretty exceptional run blockers. You will see a great many high bars that are flat out lying - but this Run Block bar isn’t one of them.
It’s worth noting too, that while 7.90 is not a very good agility score, but it’s sort of a baseline, the same way that 7.80 is for tackles. That is to say, it’s unlikely that even a halfway-decent pass blocker would turn in a 7.9 (G) or 7.8 (T). But any lower and you can almost be assured that the corresponding bar will be pretty lackluster.
Pay attention to the exceptional combine scores. I mean, there are red scores and then there are red scores. </div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=75
" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">T Deion Dar Dar</a> (CHA - 5.04)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Going with our second offensive linemen, we have from Central Naboo U, the 6’4, 285-lb Dar Dar Binks.
A lot of signs that he’s heavily masked. All the non-static bars are below what they should be, given his pretty solid combine. Even endurance has a shot at climbing. Remember that if a bar’s not static, the bars you see could be lying. Players usually are in the range of what their combines suggest.
Dar Dar also has a block strength bar that is at least as good as it should be, and maybe better. And this bar pattern is a pretty common one for masked blockers: high RB, BS, with low pass blocking. Just beware of guys with that pattern, but a terrible agility score or other unsupporting combines. They are going to have terrible pass blocking. Dar Dar though, should have a very nice TC bump.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=134" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">RB Richard Dauber</a> (CAM - 4.25)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Sticking with offense again. RBs are, for me, one of the trickiest positions to draft. They’re so hard to nail down - there’s a lot of stuff going on with them and a lot of combines. And worse, you always seem to be able to find a few good rushers as undrafted rookies anyway. So it’s always good when you get a guy you can have a pretty clear beat on.
Dauber is that guy. His resemblance to my underrated RB from last year, Ryan Green, is actually pretty uncanny. One big tell here is that nice Power Inside bar. It’s always a good thing when you have a static bar that clearly outdoes the combine, and this is one of them. From his sole and pos-drill, we can also gather that a number of his other low bars are headed on the ups (HR, blitz pickup, 3rd down catching).
Dauber has a few bad combine scores that give me pause. The 4.74 is bad news. The 7.34 is right on the borderline of not being acceptable. The 111 broad jump is really poor. So this is a guy that is going to have several holes in his game. He won’t have great endurance or breakaway. His STO won’t be great either, but we can see pretty clearly where it is, and it isn’t too bad. Meanwhile, being VU means that a lot of his other bars, some of the more critical ones such as HR and blitz pickup, are poised to move up. Possibly big, given how he came out (24/27, while only being 51% developed).</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=50" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">DT Kennedy McDaniel</a> (CHA - 3.2)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">For defenders, outlying static bars can be harder to figure out. DL, for instance, have the PRS and PH static bars both contributing to their bench rep #. If a guy has high PRS for his bench, is it just because he has lower PH?
In this case, we have sort of the reverse, only the PH is way, way, WAY out there! His PRS could be on the low side, but the PH being way on the high side is a solid sign that he is going to be better than he looksl. McDaniel’s dash is not good, but it isn’t in ‘alarming’ territory quite yet. In any case, his strength will lie in his run defense. His combines aren’t spectacular, so you aren’t looking at a 60/60 beast, or anything. But he is no slouch and will be getting a nice training camp bump, and should end up being a useful player.
The drawbacks? There are drawbacks even for creeping VU players. Here, the pass rushing is a concern. His PRT will rise, but it’s got “average” as a ceiling. His PRS is well below average. And his sole is not great. That would be fine if he had something like 0 or 5 or some other very low intel number (the sole contributes to both the play diagnosis bar, and a player’s intelligence score. If too much of the sole is taken up by the intel, there’s not a whole lot left over to go into the Play Diag bar, if it helps to think of it that way). As stands, 22 sole / 41 intel strikes me as leaving the ceiling on the Play Diag bar as also “decent”, but not great.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=288" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">S Corey Maiher</a> (DAK - 3.13)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Maiher is one of the more intriguing ones I wanted to talk about. He doesn’t quite scream out ‘mask’, but there are a few good signs. He was the safety I wanted to nab out of this draft and thought I could get to.
The comment on play diagnosis from the guy above makes a good segway here, because Maiher has 24 sole - which on the surface looks pretty meh - but only 9 intel. How can such a dumbass notch a low, but still respectable sole score? It’s because his play diagnosis projects to be pretty good. The good thing about Maiher here is that his PD bar is low. That gives it room to climb. If his PD bar was in that 70-100 range, then this would not be a good sign for Maiher being a creeper. At best, that bar would hold, and could even fall. You’d have to hope he shows other signs of climbing.
However, 24 sole, 9 intel, low PD bar - probably fairly safe to guess that play diagnosis is heading up for him.
The other good thing about Maiher is that outlying zone bar. A lot of pretty humble bars, and then a single very high bar *can* be a good sign. When this happens, you can expect the zone bar to drop, while other bars gain.The good news with Maiher is that he has a strong combine overall, and he doesn’t have all sorts of other high bars that are poised to fall. We’ll see with the next five a few guys whose bars are going to rearrange, but are the kind that are going to drop like rocks in training camp.</div>
<div style='width:460px;background:#eee;box-shadow:2px 2px 6px #666; -moz-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; -webkit-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; padding: 5px; margin:0 auto;font-family:serif !important;text-align:center;font-variant: small-caps'><p style='font-size:250%;font-weight:bold;margin:0;padding:0'>5<span style='color:#b02'>DOWN</span></p></div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=162" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">CB Carl Covington</a> (KAL - 2.19)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Covington is a textbook-perfect case of what I wanted to look at - someone who for many reasons might look good, even great, only he has a few GLARING indicators that say otherwise.
If you’re only looking at bar patterns without combines, these would look a lot like “Man/End” and “Zone/ST” coverage pairs. But not really. What are coverage pairs? Man/End and Zone/ST are bars that are often paired together in their unmasking, either up or down (the same with GD/END and RR/ST in receivers). When you have something that looks like this, and the corner has say, a 4.40 dash, then yeah, be excited. The M2M bar is going to shoot up. (see NLB’s corner from the ‘24 draft)
But what Covington really has...is a ton of high bars completely unsupported by his combine. Quick rundown:
—4.58 is worse than bad, it’s awful.
—7.27 agility (likewise)
—32 position drill (likewise)
That is one unholy trifecta of bottom-feeding combines! I don’t know why none of them show up as green, because they are all bad, bad bad news. His high bars are all going to drop, probably severely. His already near-zero man/end bars, if they climb, aren’t getting far.
If Malcpow’s study has numbers that still hold, then once you get past 4.52, 7.20, or 37 PSPEC, you fall off a cliff. There are corners with even very good ratings in Man/Zone/Run Def/INT right up to those boundaries. Below that, you’re flirting with disaster in the relevant skill.
*The corresponding numbers for safeties, with similar fall-off-cliff-ness, seem to be 4.59, 7.35, and 37.
There’s one last sneaky trick Carl Covington has up his sleeve, however, which is a high punishing hitter bar. It’s clearly a good PH bar given his 14 bench reps, which are neither good nor bad. However, judging whether a defensive back is going to be a creeper or faller based on just a good static bar is dangerous -- the bench press combine is generated based on both his PH bar, and his BnR bar. Given the many numerous really bad signs about Covington, I would say this just means his BnR is going to be dropping heavily too, just like everything else.
I’d also add play diagnosis to the dropping heavily list. 20 sole, 31 intel isn’t a bad combination, but not for that 70-100 looking PD bar. That is way too high.
</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=118" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">WR Jeff Berry</a> (WAC - 2.22)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">The good: BPR solid, probably on the high side of a 4.48. Those white bars are not exact “this is what you should expect”, of course: merely middle of the range type stuff. So, it’s good that the BPR is at least in the range and possibly above - and an added plus that BPR is such a useful bar.
The 17 sole is low, but not killer. He has extremely low intel (8) to sort of compensate for that. The position drill score is quite good, and typically results in pretty solid avoid/adjust bars, but they can be all over the place. A 54 probably correlates pretty strongly with good avoid/adjust bars (I don’t know how strongly), but it doesn’t guarantee it. So, you’d have to ask, how does the the rest of the player look?
The answer is pretty bad. The 7.20 agility line is about the same for corners with Run Defense as it is for receivers with Get Downfield. Berry has mostly all high bars to begin with; with a 7.45 agility, you *know* that GD is coming down hard. He also has a pair of pretty high PR bars, but a broad jump that is quite bad. So those are bars that are coming down too, probably substantially. When a number of bars are headed down, I tend to think all of the ones that can, are also going to crash.
In the end, he does have the BPR, and that can’t be negated. If it’s only the GD and END that get seriously hosed, the saving grace is he’s still a useful player - just a far cry from where he looks now.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=28" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">WR Bill Croteau</a> (BKL - 1.15)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Croteau is probably too good to not end up a quality player. However, for what his combine looked like... it’s probably going to be disappointing.
The 38 sole & 18 bench are why his combine is so good. With 90 intel, I’m not sure. 38’s really high anyway so his RR might be up there, but it could also have room to fall. The 18 bench is a very rare score for a receiver, so he’ll have good courage. That should hold.
But he still has too many dang high bars to really believe in him. Maybe if I knew his BPR were say, 80, I’d feel differently. As stands, I think he figures to see his GD fall to a middling level. He could be a very solid receiver with great ST value nonetheless - but for a high round 1, or a #28 overall in the draft, with an exceptional combine score, he looks on the low end.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=346" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">TE Jamal Newton</a> (MTC - 4.22)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Newton isn’t as bad as he first looked to me. The issue here is simply that the 40 and agility times are nightmarishly bad. 4.92, and 8.29 - it hardly gets much worse. But they could have been substantially better #s while still being just as bad signs.
So it probably doesn’t matter just how extremely low those two are. Newton is not going to be a very good receiver. His BPR is low, and he’ll have nearly no GD. His run-blocking, and everything else, is going to drop as well.
Where he’s left is a goalline, adequate blocking (hopefully) TE3 who is a good long-snapper (85 by the right click; very nice!). The kind of player who will drop a ton in camp, but still have just the right utility to stick around on the roster.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=36" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">DT Tracy Watach</a> (CHI - 2.31)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">His combine looks good because of two things: 32 bench reps, and 7.66 agility. Neither of those are extraordinary, and all of his other bars are way too high.
15 sole/22 intelligence — not enough to support that play diagnosis bar. At best, it holds, but it’s likely headed for a tumble. 7.66 - solid enough score, but not for a RD quite so high. That’ll come down to earth a bit. 5.11 - this one is a very bad score.
He’ll always have the PRS to fall back on, and could be a passable enough run defender. It just seems like he will be a far cry from the 30/59 he might look like now. Oh well, maybe TC will prove me wrong! If it does, I’ll have to look a lot closer at that 5.11 time and the PRT bar. My understanding is it is pretty extraordinarily bad, and I almost can’t see how it is going to drop so far from where it is now. I mean, it’s 13/62 now, and I’m expecting it to wind up at maybe 20 as a best-case...</div>
<div style='width:460px;background:#eee;box-shadow:2px 2px 6px #666; -moz-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; -webkit-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; padding: 5px; margin:0 auto;font-family:serif !important;text-align:center;font-variant: small-caps'><p style='font-size:250%;font-weight:bold;margin:0;padding:0'>1<span style='color:#dc6'>STRANGE</span></p></div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=14" style="color:#ca2" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">QB Bryan Maston</a> (STP - 1.32)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">The enigma of the draft class! This is a fun one to talk about because QBs are hard to figure out, and Maston is no exception. He can go so far in either direction. Career backup, flaky starter? Or mega-steal, franchise player?
The positives: QB combines are all over the place. Maston isn’t a scrambler, but that’s probably a minor issue to most. None of his other combines really limit him or pin him down to a certain ceiling or other. For a 35 sole, low (33) intel is a pretty nice sign. Forget what his agil is, he has a 70-100 Sense Rush bar, and that’s a VERY good sign.
The negatives: a ton of unusually high bars. His SR being so high, maybe that means his other bars hit the high range of what their combines usually support, too. Reaaaal tough for me to bet on that, though, but I’m more of a pansy about QBs than most. Also, he’s 5’11, and there is this idea that shorter QBs, particularly sub-6’0 guys, have a harder time with interceptions. Combined with what could be a high Read Def bar, and a not-absurdly-low-yet 33 intel, it puts a slight damper on that not-quite-super-high sole score.
I love this pick, though. It is scary how much he resembles <a href="http://www.cyberfootballleague.com/fof_draft/show_player.php?player_id=9" style="color:#ca2" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">QB Ty Kinney (CyFL 2028 Draft - 1.12)</a>Just look:
Almost an exact match in agility and pos drill, an exact match in broad jump. That same extremely high Sense Rush bar, a great sign that’s also dragged down by a lot of other super high bars. Kinney has a few things over Maston - 36 sole / 03 intel, 6’1 height, scrambling ability - but has a notably lower bench press. Nemesis (CLB owner here) and I were both after Kinney big time, and he got him at 1.12.
So I don’t really have a read here. I love this pick, though. At 1.32, it’s a lowish investment for what might turn out to be an outstanding franchise player. If he really putters out, you got a guy who at least doesn’t take sacks out there, and you haven’t thrown a super high pick or a ton of money at him. Maston vs the creeping, but 10/31 Stephen McMaster at 1.31 will be one to follow.</div>
<div style='width:460px;background:#eee;box-shadow:2px 2px 6px #666; -moz-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; -webkit-box-shadow: 2px 2px 6px #666; padding: 5px; margin:0 auto;font-family:serif !important;text-align:center;font-variant: small-caps'><p style='font-size:250%;font-weight:bold;margin:0;padding:0'>2<span style='color:#06c'>SIDE-BY-SIDE</span></p></div>
Two more players I wanted to discuss, one up, one down, just because of how similar they were to one another.
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=62" style="color:#05a" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">OLB Ronnie Lee</a> (MTC - 2.18)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">I would’ve included Lee in the first list if not for his Bizarro twin, because he’s probably the best example I have. This guy SCREAMS “I’m MASKED!”. Really screams it.
The rundown: 15 sole is not good, but the 6 intel could pull that up to acceptable levels. 7.08 is pretty much right on the edge of being a completely outstanding score. Lee is going to be a very good run-stuffer, not much doubt about that one. His pass rush tech won’t be special - the 4.73 is pretty limiting, I believe - but it doesn’t shut him out of anything other than 3-4 WLB. That PRS is really something special, and so is the BnR.
The BnR here is a case of a guy with a lot of low non-static bars, except for one, which is super high. That’s a pretty common sign of a mask, again, and BnR is definitely a good bar to look at for this kind of thing. That is, guys with good combines, a lot of humble bars, and then one way out of whack maxed-out BnR. The BnR will fall - maybe - but I am pretty sure Lee is VU and the other bars, especially Run Defense, are going to have a handsome amount of room to climb.</div>
<a href="http://www.simgamingnetwork.com/osfl/utilities/draft/show_player.php?player_id=547" style="color:#a12" onmouseover="this.style.textdecoration='underline' " onmouseout="this.style.textdecoration='none'">OLB Ken Collazo</a> (BOS - UDFA)
<div style="width:95%;margin-left:0%;background:#e3e9eb;border:1px solid #b5b0c8;padding:2px 5px">Now Lee’s evil clone. If you ask me, this bar pattern also screams “mask” in a big way. The broad jump and pos drill, neither are bad or good scores, and with the other low bars they look like a legitimate set of cover pairs. And then you have that out-of-whack Bump bar as well.
But then you go look at his combines. How is this guy going to stop the run if he can’t maneuver his way around a good offensive tackle? How is he going to rush the passer with a 40 time so bad it would make you move a DE inside? And if your linebacker can’t rush the passer or stop the run, what possible utility is he going to have?
Now all those “low” bars (RD, PRT, PD) look high anyway. If that bump falls, all these other ones are also likely to fall.
Guys like these are pretty rare, I think. But they do serve as a good reminder that even when you see a very masked-looking bar signature, you should make sure the combine supports it. It reminds me of a corner with a bad combine I saw once in the CyFL who had a solid PH bar, low bars everywhere, and then very high matching Man/End. That’s the type of thing that screams VU - except he crashed in camp. Why? Because of what must’ve been a similarly bad combine. When those Man/End bars fell, there was nothing else to go up. They were masked pairs - but all that meant was they were both coming down.</div>
—
So, that’s it. Hope this is useful/interesting/whatever to some people and can serve maybe as a reference for what sort of things you might consider when evaluating a player. At the least it’s about everything that I’d consider.
Let’s see if TC and their ensuing careers, support what I’ve had to say! Would be thrilled if some of these guys proved me wrong and I could look back and see what happened. It’d mean I’d have to really change some of my thinking.
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