Draft interviews

[Aston]

QB Tom Monroe -- VO -- yep!
QB Phil Davis -- U -- yep!
G Spencer Giametti -- O -- no, seems U
DE Marvin Barnes -- VO -- Woah. Guess it was right after all.
*DE Kaleb Fox -- VU -- yep!
*DE Gus Brewer -- VU -- No. Actually, looks more O.
*OLB Dillon Oldenbach -- VU -- yep!
CB Ellis Hardy -- VO -- oh yeah. Big time.
*CB Luis Muisal -- O -- yeah, certainly seems so.
S Nicky Howard -- O -- Didn't expect this prTC, but O looks about right.
S Leroy McNeil -- O -- yep.
S Peyton Keith -- VO -- extremely!

In the early going, it looks like my scouts hit 10 out of 12. Wow.

I didn't think interview results were that accurate. I suppose I'll have to pay more attention to them.

But the two where my scouts appeared wrong, I went with them and got led astray. Giametti would've made a fine Irishman, and Brewer looks solid, but a lot less than the coup we thought we were getting.

[Guest]

I'm almost certain that because H2R, O and VO are the results you are most likely to get coupled with the fact that most players are going to drop at least somewhat after the draft that you guys are seeing a confirmation bias. Meaning, of course the O and VO was correct, that's gonna be true for 75% of any players in the draft. No biggie.

The problem then is the U and VU results you get that end up being wrong hurt. And that's why I basically don't pay attention to what the scout says. Tighten those bars up for me, but I don't trust anything else you just told me. It'd be different if there wasn't a dice roll involved, but there is.

[Guest]

It really depends. Let's take my draft last season where WR Diego Mathis falls to me at 1.28. No combine. I got VU. I take an educated gamble and go with the scout.

Yes I sometimes get burned when I do this, like this season with Nicky Howard. But I get a good enough share of winners to make it count.

[Guest]

It really depends. Let's take my draft last season where WR Diego Mathis falls to me at 1.28. No combine. I got VU. I take an educated gamble and go with the scout.

Yes I sometimes get burned when I do this, like this season with Nicky Howard. But I get a good enough share of winners to make it count.

I was going to trade up to get Mathis. Too bad I didn't have a set of brass balls I could've drafted him instead of Dillon Mayes.

[Guest]

It really depends. Let's take my draft last season where WR Diego Mathis falls to me at 1.28. No combine. I got VU. I take an educated gamble and go with the scout.

Yes I sometimes get burned when I do this, like this season with Nicky Howard. But I get a good enough share of winners to make it count.

That's because you know what you're looking for before you interview. That's why I'm calling it confirmation bias. You already expected the player to be good and barring the interview coming back horrible, as bars dropping a ton, you're likely to draft a guy.

[Guest]

That's because you know what you're looking for before you interview.

I can't really say that about Mathis. No combine could be anything. He had a nice static bar and sol vs intell. Lots of guys have that and turn out to be duds.

Also, I could look at guy, think he might be good but VU can be the difference between "just ok" and "all star".

[Guest]

I can't really say that about Mathis. No combine could be anything. He had a nice static bar and sol vs intell. Lots of guys have that and turn out to be duds.

You can absolutely say that about Mathis because you did. "He had a nice static bar and sol vs intell."

Looks at his bars history he clearly had good enough bars and not just in the static areas. Yes, no combine makes it somewhat more of a mystery but since combines can lie, they too are suspect. No combines fall in drafts because people are scared of them, which is fine, but since the advent of 39 they're almost easier to diagnose as the whacky combines don't get mixed in.

My point isn't that interview results are absolutely worthless, though they border on it for me, but that they're just a small piece of the puzzle.

Also, I could look at guy, think he might be good but VU can be the difference between "just ok" and "all star".

Sure, again, it's a piece of the puzzle.

Also, Nicky Howard isn't a burn, the bottom of the 1st wasn't a terribly hot spot this year and he still looks like he'll make a good SS assuming bars don't keep falling off.