2021 Draft Class - Pre Draft Discussions

[Nemesis]

He is! Tex Dennis? He came out pretty low if I remember and he will solidly be in his 50s when it's all said and done, and probably perform better than his bars.

People talk about number ratings a lot, especially overall ratings - but that can be a really misleading measure of a player's quality. Just like with real teams, all you can do is watch how a player performs. And I love that about this game.

By the way that draft, Ben said Dennis was #2 material. #1 would have been QB Ethan Lepsis, now with Chicago. And Dennis was a 4.33 mega-stud.

I am actually a little skeptical about Oglethorpe. He is the kind of guy who might even fall to Phoenix in this first round, though I'd be pissed if that happened, because he also has the chance to be really, *really* good.

Dennis is the SHIT! He'll probably be starting this year as he ran a 4.27 prior to FA. Fastest man in the league!

[Aston]

You didn't listen to me and kept starting that other guy! I told you :D

[Aston]

For the love of god somebody take Cary Money at 1.1.

[Guest]

For the love of god somebody take Cary Money at 1.1.

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. i want to say "were in the money" for the next 10 years!

but hey ill take "doug flutie" too

[Aston]

Don't get me wrong I will still be deeply saddened if you get Mr. High Bars Everywhere Oglethorpe, but it's inevitable at this point that one of those guys is going to Phoenix.

But Money...

*97 PSpec - out of this world
*21 bench - also out of this world
* superior broad and agility scores out of the two QBs
* intelligence - looks low, but who cares how low? His sole is 44. He'll at least be good at avoiding ints but given how once-in-maaany-years his combine is, it's probably godly like the rest
* high sense rush
* maxed out long passing bar - clear sign of a heavy mask to go along with all the other signs about him

He is going to be a stud who has a massive boom in ratings in training camp.

I guess Oglethorpe could also be some 90/90 guy so maybe there's an argument here, but I'd go with Money as the safe pick. Who wants to see 'Oglethorpe' in their solevision anyway, and plus he's short.

It is always a good idea to Cary Money. Unless you intend to get robbed. In which case it's better to leave money at home.

[mike17]

Cary Money scares me. What if his bars are true? Too many of them look like they could be zeroes for me to take a chance.

If I make this pick, it's gonna be Oglethorpe.

[Guest]

Cary Money scares me. What if his bars are true? Too many of them look like they could be zeroes for me to take a chance.

If I make this pick, it's gonna be Oglethorpe.

im with mike on this one i guess its bird in the hand. i mean either qb will be fine, but id sleep much better at night with oglethorpe plus Ogre looks like a runner ala tom skeen not as fast im sure but it helps

[Guest]

Rico Oglethorpe is a classic FOF name if I have ever seen one.

Almost as classic as Rico Dietz!

[Guest]

Ya know what would've been perfect?



Rico Money.

[Aston]

Cary Money scares me. What if his bars are true? Too many of them look like they could be zeroes for me to take a chance.

If I make this pick, it's gonna be Oglethorpe.

5'9, though. That's not just a short QB, that's waaaaaay short. I think I would be too scared to build around a QB like that, whatever his bars may look like. His combine is just OK after all, in comparison.

On Money: to me, the once-in-a-lifetime combine tells me that the bars are definitely not true. Heck, even the bars say that (high long passing - mask)! He should be laser accurate for sure.

In any case, it's a good thing we have cornerbacks here in Utah - oh wait. :(

[Edirash]

I don't like this draft class (at least the top5-10), there are too many outstandings D-lines and I have 4 great players there. Two great RB, even without the combine one of them, and is too soon for the replacement of Isaac Staat, at least for top5 pick.

About the QBs, both seems risky to me, but if I have to choose one of them would be Cary Money, the 5'9 of Oglethorpe is too short for a QB...

Maybe I'll trade down.

[Aston]

Maybe it is because I am not sitting there with a coveted Top 2 pick, but I just do not see the "risk" everyone is talking about (for Money at least).

There's many things about drafting I don't know, but Cary Money is a completely cut-and-dry case. I'll lay out my argument and you guys can point the flaws in it where you see them.

Bars lie all the time, it is the combines that tell you the big part of the story. It's one thing if the bars are just bad. But it's quite another if the bar patterns are screaming "we are lying to you, he is really good" - which is the case here.

In summary: those bar patterns tell you when a player is masked and going to climb in ratings over his career. His combine scores will tell you how much. In Money's case, he has the bar patterns that scream a heavy mask and a combine score that screams even more loudly.

I haven't seen a quarterback like this since the 2018 class with Boone and Beisel and Baines. All of them came out with most of their bars looking like crap, but with obvious patterns and backed up by good combine scores that made them sure things in camp and not risks at all. Sure enough, they all boomed in rookie camp in huge ways and are some of the best young QBs in the league. And even then, none of their combine scores can begin to hold a candle to Money's.

Traveling back in time to the 2018 draft...

Boone (UTA)


*Great* combine. High sense rush with high Medium/Timing pair and everything else pretty low. +10 camp.

Beisel (CHA)


Only a "good" combine. I mean, it was pretty up there but nothing to write home about compared to Boone's. High sense rush with high Deep/Read pair and everything else low. +7 camp. I think the combine tells you why Boone was +10 and Beisel was only +7.

Baines (MTC)



The best of the bunch. *Great* combine, but a hair short of Boone's. His mask is the exact same as Money's: a tripped-out Long Passing bar to go with the good sense rush. +12 camp.

Nota bene, I didn't know about the long passing bar mask at the time, so this was a big surprise to me then. And until I pulled out the 2018 draft file just now and looked at him again, I thought he was just a volatility hit in the right direction. Now it's clear he was heavily masked.

And here's Tubbs (2014) for good measure:

Bobby 'The Truth' Tubbs


The guy that started it all, I think. Legendary +9 camp after everybody missed him until the second round and Ben E Lou came in saying "What, this guy should have been 1.02 (after that once-in-a-generation WR, Crazy Legs Rudzinski)". He's 70/70 now and probably still climbing. High sense rush and 3rd/2min pairs. He was a no-combine guy.

Now, last year we had a guy in the first round that looked like he was going to be pretty good...and then he really underwhelmed. Here's Washington's Hardy Campana (sorry Jug ;)) and why I don't think he is a cautionary tale about Money at all.

Hardy Campana


Great combine (falls a little short of Boone's), high sense rush bar - so how come he only went +1 in camp?

IMO Campana's combine was really just OK, not as great as it looked on paper. And his bar patterns showed no sign of masking at all.

The sense rush bar being high is a good sign, but a high sense rush bar is not a sign of a mask, it's the high Long Passing bar (or one of those sh/acc, med/tim, deep/read, 3rd/2min pairs) that are the bar patterns you look for to see mask.

And the sense rush bar is actually right where it should be given his agility score. His agility score was a rare red score, and the whole reason his combine looked so good. But all it did was match the sense rush bar.

The rest of his combine was just ordinary. I mean, it was good, but run of the mill good. I was pretty surprised at how he turned out last draft, but it makes much more sense to me now.

Compare that to Cary Money. He has red scores in PSPEC and Bench Press. Sorry, that's not doing it justice. I can say "Hardy Campana had a red score in agility." But for Money, you have to say, "Cary Money has RED!!!! scores in PSPEC and Bench!"

Because there is red, and then there is "WOAH" red. Cary Money is way, way, way into "WOAH" red territory. They are just about as high as you will ever see.

Money's combine score is almost twice as good as Mickey Baines'. His combine eats Randy Boone's combine for lunch and craps it out like unwanted waste. His combine score's unwanted waste then laughs in the face of Mel Beisel's combine score and makes it cry.

I would wager that short of a volatility death, that there is no way in the world he does not turn out to be an elite QB.

--

On Oglethorpe, his combine is a cut above Randy Boone's. He looks like a pretty can't miss prospect too, but it's just the height that really bugs me. There seems to be quite a lot of skepticism about sub 6'0 QBs, and this guy is way below that. A guy I know from another league swears that sub-6' QBs almost never pan out.

If Oglethorpe were even 5'11 though I think this would be a great debate between him and Money. Maybe I am making too much of the height thing, but what I see with Oglethorpe is a guy you hope will hold to his bars and even though he probably does, you hope his height doesn't affect his play.

And Money's combine still looks at Ogle's combine, eats it up, and watches the resulting crap take on Mel Beisel's.

--

But really, I am sure you guys know what are you doing, too, and probably a lot better than me. So that's why I invite everyone to tear holes into this argument, because I feel like I have *got* to be missing something here to not be seeing the same things you are.

[mike17]

The problem with Money is not that his bars are low, it's that they are ZEROES

In my experience, if a guy has a zero in a rating, he will never gain points in that rating regardless of talent

[Aston]

Ah, I see what you mean. I have not interviewed so I cannot quite tell but I am guessing you have, and there are a couple of zero-looking bars. I agree that would be a concern, and there are a few of them, although the most important one, accuracy, is probably ridiculously high.

I do not think the "zeroed bars = never gain points" is an absolute though, at least not regardless of talent.



That zeroed screen bar from the first guy here, even after the interview, turned out to be maxed (link).

[Guest]

I love your analysis, especially bringing Campana in on it (first thing I thought of). But I hate that you're selling people on Money and I'll never see him at my pick.


Money is CLEARLY a dud and you'd be a fool to waste a pick on him.