2021 Draft Class - Pre Draft Discussions

[mike17]

When he says, beware the out of whack sense rush, he is referring to the qb with high bars and low sense rush. In fact he's saying the high sense rush with low bars is a good sign meaning that the qb is better than he looks.

[Guest]

For me it's plain and simple: Money's bars are out of whack from his combines. Just look at his position drill, it's off the chart, but his bars show terrible accuracy and timing. That's just not right. Based on those combines there's obviously masking, but to what degree is hard to tell because QBs have so many damn bars and we don't know how the combine correlate to his actual ability for all the bars.

If I had to choose, I'd take Money, but that's because I'd also side with the lower volatility. Plus there's the height "issue." Of course there's the whole intelligence factor too, which I know nothing about since I haven't bothered interviewing them.

Just don't expect either of the top QBs to start this year unless they boom in camp.

and as malcpow said
"It bears repeating, sense rush is a great indicator. It's very reassuring to see a high sense rush bar. Be skeptical of guys with a sense rush bar way out of whack with the rest of their bars"

I believe he only means that you should watch out for people who have high bars and low sense rush, not the other way around (in case that's what you were implying).

Oh, and third down passing is partially tied to broad jump.

[Guest]

oh in that case never mind

[Aston]

yeah but none of thos guys were this extreme

Well, Boone was pretty extreme. SR + 2 high bars, almost nothing else. But nothing zeroed, I guess.

the best part of all this is i REALLY dont have to make a choice it will be made for me. if money goes 1st then rico is solid he may not end up 80/80 but ill bemost happy with 60/60ish if he holds his bars if rico goes 1st then i go money and pray or i could go with the safe pick Frysinger move him to wr and let the good times roll there

Honestly I expect Rico to end up a lot closer to 85/85 than to like 60/60. Just wasn't sure about his performance. I've never seen a 5'9 QB though, so I guess we'll find out!

Oh yeah, I forgot about Frysinger. I guess I wasn't looking at the RBs but there are a couple of really good ones at the top.

On volatility, there's been some interesting thoughts thrown around about that. Apparently the odds of a VSOL or VSOD are pretty low. I haven't looked into it so much but some people think you may as well ignore it! I mean, a guy with 40s vol can be hit with a VSOD still. It would be a freak occurrence but almost no more a freak occurrence than it already is.

[Guest]

Since I've been hit with volatility, I tend to be aware of it in the first round. Too much of your future can be tied into those picks. Other rounds I don't care as much.

[Aston]

I agree with that. it's just if getting a volatility hit is a freak thing and choosing a guy with low volatility won't even significantly reduce your chances of one...what's the point?

[Guest]

I agree with that. it's just if getting a volatility hit is a freak thing and choosing a guy with low volatility won't even significantly reduce your chances of one...what's the point?

I don't believe that in the slightest. Yes, people with 40 volatility can still get hit with it, but it's probably a dice roll. The number is there for a reason. Volatility is always a chance and if I have to choose between a 99 vol and a 40 vol, I know where I'm going.

Edit: When I say between a 99 and a 40, I meant it in terms of all things being equal.

[Guest]

im with garion on that thats why i didnt pick up a qb last year all the guys in teh draft were all 90ish vol my break point is about 80 and ogelthrope is right there

[Aston]

It's hard to quantify though. What is the difference in % chance for a VSOD between 99 and 40. If it's the difference between 1% and 0.6%...that's pretty little.

I do not know what the numbers are though. Ben E Lou and others are not concerned about volatility. I guess I would be in the first round, with the caveat that I wouldn't pass up a player that looks really good regardless.

[Guest]

THIS is why I love FOF, and what counteracts my extreme disdain for the randomness. Good discussions.

I've been nailed by VSOD (a 1.4, 85/85 RB, dropped 26 points, something like that). But I keep telling myself that it very much is the exception rather than the rule. I'm with Nutah, figuring it changes the odds very minimally. It is there, but shouldn't be enough to scare you away. All other things being equal, I may go with a lower volatility guy, but I don't let it sway me too much.

I thought long and hard about making a big push to get up to 1.1 or 1.2, since I obviously need a QB, but I'm pretty happy at this point to let others take the risks. :D

[mike17]

Can we start this thing untimed? I'm ready to make my pick

[Guest]

good idea

[Guest]

It's live. Get to it!

[Guest]

picks in i have a feeling this draft will move

[Guest]

picks in i have a feeling this draft will move

I can't believe you took that guy! j/k

Did you get Manning or Leaf?