The Draft Has Begun - Official Draft Discussion Thread

[Z]

Maybe it's just me but I wish this stuff was never posted here. I would get way more enjoyment out of this league/game if it was more about building a real football team rather than trying to figure out patterns to game the game.

Agreed. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.

[Clay]

Agreed. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.

It's kind of like... I don't wanna know how much rat shit is in my peanut butter.

[Guest]

I would get way more enjoyment out of this league/game if it was more about building a real football team rather than trying to figure out patterns to game the game.

I would too. Unfortunately, with all this stuff being public record, I can't just ignore it. And for me, quite a bit of it is just stuff picked up from playing the game. I couldn't have told you the exact pairs position-by-position before MP's post, but I was able to look at a player and say "aha...that guy looks exactly like that masked guy I drafted in that other career/league who increased by 35 points in his career."

[aholbert]

First off, there are a small handful of people who qualify it when they're posting unproven/untested theories, but when they post facts, they identify them as such. MalcPow is one of them. I know what he did to draw these conclusions. That thread isn't theory; it's fact. Further, from playing SP, I had identified some of masked pairs myself without the controlled testing that MalcPow did, and this guy absolutely fits the profile of a hugely masked QB. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that I don't think I've ever seen a QB with his bar signature that isn't hugely masked.

Second, the situation is that *any* of the combinations of masked pairs is the tell, not all of them. Let's look at the key section again:

Not allpairs. A pair. Any one of the those pairs is a tell. If he had all of them high, then he wouldn't be masked; he'd have a bunch of high bars. ;) My Scout is VG at young talent and VG at QBs, which means the interview result shows better where the masked bars are. And sure enough, after interviewing, this guy's 3rd/2-min bars are identical, and his Sense Rush is likely in the 80-90 range.

Third, Jim appears to have left some clues around to identify good players (whether intentionally or unintentionally, I don't know). (NOTE: the rest of this paragraph is theory, but very, very strongly supported by hundreds of seasons of gameplay.) I'm of the belief that some positions have bars that can *never* get above around 80 unless the player is exceptional. I am about 95% convinced that Sense Rush for QBs is one of those. Pay very close attention to that bar.

Finally, sure my team has needs at other positions, but in this computer game, QB/WR/WR is by far the most important setup you can have. It trumps everything. Because of the fictional start, it takes a few years for league-wide offensive cohesion to rise enough for offense to completely overpower everything, but this league is pretty close to being there now, and it definitely will be there once my new QB is fully developed. The other strategies have worked up to now, but unfortunately, unless there's a new version, QB/WR/WR will dwarf everything pretty much henceforth.

One, you said that this QB will probably fall in the 60-70 range. Here are the past Qbs that have gone 1 or 2 in the draft (Allen 75/75, Scoggins 42/42, Whalen 85/85, Parrish 79/79, Nori 76/76) Now the difference between them and Tubbs is every none of them were masked. The owners all knew they were getting a franchise QB when they drafted them (except for Scoggins). So it was a no brainer to pick them in the top 2. I'm not challenging that Tubbs wont be a good player. I'm challenging that the theory justifies anyone picking him 1.2. Your best case scenario has hin in the 60-70 range. If he falls short of that he's a mid 50's QBs and mid 50's QBs are always around for pickup either by FA or trade (see the last 2 offseasons). So why would you waste the #2 pick in the draft on a type of player that you can get much cheaper? Why would you pass over unmasked players in need positions for a player that best case scenario isnt even a top 5 QB?

Also the actual games dont show the QB/WR/WR though. As you said this league is pretty close to having cohesion overpower the league and I just won a championship with a 40/40 QB (first year with the team) and a 2nd WR who is a 39/39. Lake County did it with a good QB and two average WRs. Sure good QB/WRs help a ton but come on thats obvious. Like saying if you have a good defense you can win some games.

[aholbert]

We're talking statistics and probability here, not the results of a very small number of trials (8 bowl games). Jim himself has stated categorically that combines are by far the most important thign to look at. I wish FOF didn't work like it did, but it is what it is: a computer game with lots of little puzzles that Jim (evidently) put in to be solved. Solving the puzzles = better success. Of course, with all of the dice rolls, there's no such thing as a *guarantee* of winning, but understanding how the game works and using that knowledge is, unfortunately, the #1 key to long-term FOF success.

We arent talking just bowl games...we are talking seasons. Understanding how the game works is important if you want to win but the seasons havent shown that knowing these things equals championships. In the end thats all that matters. Winning championships. If someone was winning multiple championships using these theories, I would be convinced. But it seems to me that at least in this league, the theories arent the end all be all. If they were, I wouldnt have a chance because I dont folllow them. Same with the majority of winning owners in the league.

[Clay]

Maybe I'm just really tired on a Monday morning... but I'm getting tons of amusement at the concept of masked and unmasked players. My Monday moaning head is literally seeing a draft full of guys with like little Hamburgerler masks on. Hehe...

Good times... good times.

[Guest]

One, you said that this QB will probably fall in the 60-70 range. Here are the past Qbs that have gone 1 or 2 in the draft (Allen 75/75, Scoggins 42/42, Whalen 85/85, Parrish 79/79, Nori 76/76) Now the difference between them and Tubbs is every none of them were masked. The owners all knew they were getting a franchise QB when they drafted them (except for Scoggins). So it was a no brainer to pick them in the top 2. I'm not challenging that Tubbs wont be a good player. I'm challenging that the theory justifies anyone picking him 1.2.

I guess that's fair in this league. (But again, it's not a theory; it's a tested fact under controlled environments.) But in some leagues I'm in, that guy goes 1.1 or 1.2, depending on the needs of the teams there. That sort of thinking probably comes from having played in a highly competitive league with the game's creator. ;)

Your best case scenario has hin in the 60-70 range. If he falls short of that he's a mid 50's QBs and mid 50's QBs are always around for pickup either by FA or trade (see the last 2 offseasons). So why would you waste the #2 pick in the draft on a type of player that you can get much cheaper? Why would you pass over unmasked players in need positions for a player that best case scenario isnt even a top 5 QB?

I probably understated that a bit. He's at least a 65, and a very good chance he's a 70+. And that's just what he'll show. There's a chance that a guy with that much masking will tkae a very long time to fully unmask.

Also the actual games dont show the QB/WR/WR though. As you said this league is pretty close to having cohesion overpower the league and I just won a championship with a 40/40 QB (first year with the team) and a 2nd WR who is a 39/39. Lake County did it with a good QB and two average WRs. Sure good QB/WRs help a ton but come on thats obvious. Like saying if you have a good defense you can win some games.

This league is still very young. We've never had a QB throw for 50 TDs. Heck, the record before last year was only 43, and a really old guy threw for 48. Very soon, 50 will become the norm for the league leader. In IHOF, for example, 8 of the last 9 league leaders threw for at least 50. Of the 23 season with over 40 TD passes, 20 have been in the last 9 years, only three occurred in first 9. This league has had 7 instances of >40 TD passes. FOFL had four just last season. The QB/WR/WR combo starts to just overpower after roughly a decade.

[Z]

Hooray.

[Clay]

Trade me that pick. I want to move up.

[Z]

Too late.

[Clay]

FYI - Lake County is away till the 28th (see Owner's Forum). He should probably be on AUTO.

[Z]

Auto him! ROOOOOOOOOOORRRRRRRRRR

[nflchampion]

AUTO! AUTO! AUTO! AUTO! AUTO!

[aholbert]

sorry guys. I was away from my desk. LAC was on auto but had no one in its list.

[Guest]

Maybe it's just me but I wish this stuff was never posted here. I would get way more enjoyment out of this league/game if it was more about building a real football team rather than trying to figure out patterns to game the game.

i feel the same way and maybe it would help if there was a little more detailed info on the game ive noticed a lot is left for the gamer to figure out. so sites like that one are the only real help. id rather not know that kind of stuff, but its the only help out there.

and not to say that everyone here hasnt been helpful, but there are many questions i havent asked cause i felt they were minor and id figure it out inthe next season or 2